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Best Stats Ahead of the UEFA Nations League Finals
The UEFA Nations League isn't everyone's cup of tea. Football purists argue that the tournament is nothing more than glorified friendly matches and that it pales in comparison to the likes of some of the past European Championships and the World Cup. While that latter point is undeniable, there can also be no arguing with the fact that the continent's newest international tournament has been a breath of fresh air on the footballing calendar.
Before the creation of the competition, fans were just treated to actual friendly matches, more than the perceived "glorified" ones that we have today. As well as that, some of Europe's lower-ranked nations now have plenty to play for, and the likes of Georgia, Luxembourg, and Kazakhstan have all been able to shine in competitive fixtures.
2025's New Look
This year, the tournament has a new look. Previously, the top-ranked teams in League A progressed to the semifinals, but now a quarterfinal stage has been added.
The last eight is just around the corner, and websites offering betting on sports can't split the frontrunners. If you like betting on sports with Thunderpick, you'll have noticed that Euro 2024 winners Spain are a narrow 2.41 underdog for the away leg of their quarterfinal against the Netherlands. Not only that, but outlets also have them as a 4.50 favorite to win the tournament for the second time.
With the finals just around the corner, let's take a look at the best stats to watch out for as the action continues in the next few months.
Expect Goals
If there's one thing we have learned from previous Nations League knockout games, it's to expect goals. In the inaugural installment of the tournament, all four semi-finalists managed to score, making a bet on 'both teams to score' a winner. Portugal managed to beat Switzerland by three goals to one, with the brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo firing home a sensational hat trick. The Netherlands beat England by the same scoreline, albeit after extra time.
The trend continued in the following editions of the competition as well. In the two semi-finals held in 2021, a mighty eight goals were scored, averaging at four per game. In both games, bets on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both hit, while the favorites won on both occasions. Spain defeated hosts Italy 2-1 in the first showpiece, with France winning a 3-2 thriller against Belgium in the second.
In 2023, we saw similar score lines as well. Croatia beat the Netherlands 4-2 after extra time, with the game finishing 2-2 after 90 minutes. Spain also triumphed against the Azzurri once more, and they did so with the same 2-1 scoreline. In this year's quarterfinals, you can expect even more goals, especially as ties will be contested over two legs rather than one.
Nervy Finals
If the semifinals offer goals aplenty, then the final itself is the exact opposite. Across three finals, there have only been four goals. However, three of those came in a riveting affair between Spain and France in 2021, with the Les Bleus eventually emerging as 2-1 victors thanks to second-half strikes from Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe. The inaugural final between Portugal and Switzerland finished 1-0 to Os Navegadores, while the most recent one between Spain and Croatia went two full hours without a goal, with La Roja eventually triumphing on penalties after a goalless draw.
Another interesting statistic is that none of the finals have seen a first-half goal. When Portugal claimed the first-ever title, their goal came on the hour mark. When France beat Spain, all three goals came after the 64th minute. For punters, those stats suggest that under 1.5 or even under 0.5 goals in the first half could be a wise bet, depending on who the finalists are. Similarly, over 1.5 goals in the second half could also be astute.
Beware of 90-Minute Betting
When it comes to betting, most punters tend to back the favorite rather than chancing their arm with the underdog. Such a tactic could be risky in the Nations League. In all 12 knockout-style games that have been played in the competition - including the third-place play-off - the favorite has only won inside 90 minutes on six occasions, providing a strike rate of exactly one in two. If you were to bet on the 'Winner of Tie' market, however, rather than the standard 1x2 market, you would see that the 50% success rate improved to 75%, with two additional favorites winning after extra time or penalties.
With the two-legged quarterfinals just around the corner, there are plenty of huge favorites. Spain, Portugal, and France are all expected to progress at a canter, but just because that is the case, don't expect them to get the job done easily. While all three may indeed progress, they may not win both legs of their respective ties, and they may not get the victory without the aid of extra time or penalty shootouts. Beware of that if you are betting on the Nations League in the coming weeks and months!
