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Best Betting Stats Ahead of the UEFA Champions League Latter Stages
The UEFA Champions League has reached the quarterfinal stage, and from here on out, all eight remaining teams will feel that they have a very real possibility of emerging with the crown. Arsenal have been ravaged by injuries in recent months, but the return of talisman Bukayo Saka couldn't have come at a better time. The England international has been sidelined for the last three months but now he is back, and with a crunch clash with Real Madrid just around the corner, the Emirates faithful will be hoping that their star-boy can somehow mastermind an upset.
But it's neither of those two heavyweights that the bookies currently outline as the betting favorite. That is an honor that the latest betting at Bovada odds gives to Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, priced at +300 and +325 respectively. They both have winnable-looking quarterfinal clashes against Borussia Dortmund and Aston Villa, and both will be expected to progress at a canter.
Bovada voiced its doubts about Real Madrid in a tweet outlining their odds - but Real does remain their third top pick, so it’s not too bad.
With the tournament now at its business end, let's take a look at the best betting stats for the latter stages of the Champions League, and what you can expect to see in the coming weeks.
An Underdog Will Spring An Upset
While both the aforementioned Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund have unquestionably difficult tasks ahead of them, they have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Both sides are huge underdogs to progress against PSG and the La Liga-topping Blaugrana, but that means that they will head into their respective contests without pressure, with nothing to lose and with everything to gain. Not only that; statistically, an underdog always makes it through to the Champions League semifinals.
Last season, it was Dortmund themselves. They upset Atletico Madrid over two legs to reach the final four last term, before then going on to shock PSG and unexpectedly reach the final. But their heroics weren't a standalone act.
In 2023, Inter Milan took advantage of a weak half of the draw to reach the final, while the year before that it was Unai Emery's Villareal that progressed to the semifinals, eliminating Juventus and Bayern Munich on the way. In 2020, both RB Leipzig and Lyon were huge outsiders but still progressed, while the year before that it was Tottenham and Ajax embarking on fairytale runs of their own.
While there are no stats and figures involved here, if you're a punter, make sure you double and triple-check your bets ahead of the quarterfinals. An underdog will spring the shock - we just don't know who it will be.
Expect Goals and Drama To Follow Real Madrid
So far this season, Real Madrid matches have been goalfests. They've conceded plenty and they've scored more, and if their recent Champions League knockout games are anything to go by, don't expect that pattern to change anytime soon.
Throughout their run to the final last season, 15 goals were scored across their quarterfinal and semifinal ties against Manchester City and Bayern Munich, averaging almost four goals per game. In 2022, that number stood at a whopping 20 across just four matches. And in those games, the goals came late... very late. No fewer than six goals came in the 80th minute or later, including two goals inside 60 seconds from Rodrygo in Los Blancos' semifinal victory against Manchester City.
Real have a love affair with the Champions League unlike anything else. They have won the tournament a record 15 times throughout their illustrious history, over twice the amount of second-placed AC Milan, with six of those triumphs coming in the last 11 years. With two-legged knockout ties looming on the horizon against Arsenal and potentially Paris Saint-Germain, expect the goals to flow, and expect them to come late, especially if the reigning champions are trailing.
Tense Finals
While goals might flow with regular aplomb across the quarters and the semis, once it gets to the final, they seem to dry up. This year's showpiece will take place at Bayern Munich's Allianz Arena on May 31st, and the Bavarians are still in with a chance of playing in the final on home turf. But even if they manage to reach the final that their stadium will be hosting or not, don't expect many goals to be scored.
Each of the last six finals has featured two goals or fewer, and that includes a run of four straight one-goal games between 2020 and 2023. Real Madrid bucked that trend last season when they beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Wembley, but the average number of goals scored in the final across the last six years stands at a paltry 1.33. You have to go all the way back to 2018 for the last time that both teams scored in the final, with Los Blancos once again emerging supreme, beating Liverpool 3-1 in Kyiv thanks to a blistering Gareth Bale brace.
That Ukraine-hosted showpiece came off the back of a scintillating run of finals. Between 2011 and 2018, both teams scored in every final, and only two of them resulted in two goals or fewer. Unfortunately, those days are long gone, so we can expect a nervy final once again in Munich this season.
